SMOKİNG AND COVID 19 •••

 SMOKİNG AND COVID 19 •••

Infectious Diseases Association President Prof.  Dr.  We talked with Ceyhan about those who were curious about the Covid-19 outbreak.  Ceyhan, both in the course of the epidemic both in Turkey and told us what the future projections.

  China's Wuhan surrounding the city and the world revealed the epidemic Covidien-19 unfortunately, met last March in Turkey at the beginning.  Our life order was suddenly shaped according to the epidemic.  We started to take care to stay in homes unless it is compulsory.  The notifications that we receive personally have been stated by all experts on the subject, including the Chief Health Ministry, for weeks ... This response is one of the names who tried tirelessly to inform the public as well as the health war in the field, Infectious Diseases Association President Prof.  We talked about his situation.  We got his predictions for the coming days ...

As world physicians, what have you discovered about this virus since you saw the first Covid-19 case?

 There has been no difference in the virus since the outbreak began in Wuhan.  Only this has changed;  At first small case series were coming from China and the information was different.  But then when the numbers started to be seen in Europe, Iran and Turkey, we started to see things differently.  When the first broadcasts were made from China, the results seemed like nothing was happening with the children.  As the number of cases increased, we realized that this was not very true in the subsequent publications of the Chinese, and although it was much less in children, the virus could progress and deaths could occur.  For example, the Chinese calculated the coefficient of contamination low first.  In other words, it calculated in the direction that a person can infect 1-2 people.  But later, when a group from the United States examined the Chinese cases again, they found that it was 5.7, not 2.  So a person is not 1-2 people;  showed that it can infect an average of 5.7 people.  It turns out to be an even more contagious virus than it initially appeared.

 The epidemic is different in every country.  What do you attribute this to?

 There were changes in death rates, but as I said, some wrong calculations were made with the excitement and panic at the beginning of the epidemic.  Then, when the Chinese recalculated, they found that it was more lethal than they initially thought.  When rates come from Italy and Spain, it is now around 5 percent in the world.  In our case, this average is slightly lower.  There are some countries that are lower than us;  Like Austria, Israel, Portugal.

 What are the factors for different percentages?

 Considering why these rates are low in some countries and high in others, it was determined that the important factor here is age.  The higher the age group of cases in a country, the higher the death rate in that country.  For example, the death rate of Germans is low and the average age of their cases is 49.But it is high in France and Italy, where the average case ages are 62.5 and 62.The younger the age group of the cases, the lower the death rate, as the virus is more lethal at older ages.  .  We do not know exactly this rate in Turkey.  The Ministry did not make any publication about it.  But a younger group that we see from our own cases is getting sick.  This is a little about how much we protect our elders.  The fact that the age group is low in Germany and the elderly and young people are not together due to the cultural difference.  The statements of "Let's protect our old people" may have been effective in us.  The second is treatments.  Since the virus is new, medicines are also used for the first time, there are no studies showing an experience or efficacy.  We see them as we try.  We are trying to determine whether the different treatment we have reduces the mortality rates.

They also divided the virus into types.  What does this mean?

 On January 10, after the genetic structure of the virus was announced in China, over 3 thousand different mutations were shown on the virus.  However, these do not change the behavior of the virus, not a situation that increases its contagiousness.  They draw a map of which country it has passed from which country, just by looking at the mutations.  Then they do their historical analysis.  Virus historians are doing these studies.  They are trying to calculate many historical things.  The reason they are called A type, B type, C type is because they try to create a path for themselves to follow.  The virus is one;  Its lethality and contagiousness have not changed since the beginning of the epidemic.  It continues in the same way.  Preventive work is ongoing in all countries, but no country has yet to explain the solution.

 Is it more contagious than previous viruses that caused major epidemics, compared to bacteria?

 No it is not.  Contagiousness and lethality are much lower than Spanish flu.  The spread of the virus was very rapid, but at the time of the Spanish flu, there was not even a plane.  There were no such international travels during the war years, during the First World War, and despite that, it spread all over the world within 3 months.  Numbers vary in different sources, but an average of around 100 million people die.  In other words, its contagiousness and lethality are very high.  In two major flu epidemics that followed, one became the 1957 Asian flu.  3.5 million people die there.  After that, in 1968, there was the Hong Kong flu and 1.5 million people died.  Of course, when we compare it with these, the coronavirus does not cause as much epidemic and great lethality as the influenza virus.  But since people who are experiencing this now do not know about the viruses in the past, it may be called the biggest epidemic they have experienced.  The plague is a bacterium, not a virus.  It starts in Crimea under the conditions of that time, rats enter people's ships during the Crimean War and spread to Europe in that way.  This epidemic is causing damage to a third of Europe.  Now, of course, it is a disease that can be cured and treated very easily.  Diseases caused by bacteria can usually be resolved with antibiotics.  But this is not the case with viruses, and there are very few drugs that can prevent them.  They are also only effective in flu and herpes viruses.  An effective treatment has not been shown in coronaviruses.

 Until now, auxiliary drugs have always been found, and vaccines have been found for most of them.  How are the studies for Covid-19?

 For example, SARS starts at the end of 2002 and a vaccine is tried to be found.  But an effective vaccine cannot be found.  Before a vaccine is found or tested, the virus mutates and the epidemic ends itself.  After eight years in the epidemic in the Middle East and transmitted by camels in Arabia, an effective treatment has still not been found.  There is no guarantee that a vaccine for this virus will be found.  If no vaccine is found and the virus does not mutate, we will only prevent the epidemic by suppressing it.  For example, Turkey will become immune to only 5 percent of the population, will be open to the rest of human infections.  When the virus comes back, we will live in fear of an epidemic.  We will not be able to open our borders much until this epidemic is over in the world, it is for the whole world.  When the vaccine is released and we do it to as many people as we can, the virus will no longer be transmitted.  When the immune person multiplies, the danger of the virus will disappear.  Vaccine is very important here.  Our prayers are for the vaccine to be found and the work to be resolved radically.

 Our life order will continue to be controlled for a while, isn't it?

 Of course.  The shortest and most effective way to return to our previous days is to develop a vaccine.  Without fear, anyone can return to their daily life.  If not, the restrictions will loosen in the coming days, but people will be afraid to sit and talk closer than 1.5 meters.  So we will have to live by continuing many restrictions.

 On the one hand, we see good numbers in the healing case increases.  This is promising for the whole Earth, isn't it?

 Actually, recovery cases are still low, as these are early numbers.  When we look back at the end of this work, we will see that 95 percent of it has already improved.  For example, if you look back to China or South Korea, there is a death toll there, but the number that has recovered is many times over.  Those numbers are still smaller because the epidemic is still continuing.  If you pay attention, it is getting more and more every day and it will increase.  In the end it will be like I said

This situation is "This epidemic is a very dangerous epidemic, there is not much to do."  Does it refute your thesis?  In fact, people recover if they are treated well and looked after.  Maybe their own immunity has a big effect, but the treatment is also effective ...

 It is not clear yet whether these drugs are effective or not, but it is very important that we can provide intensive care treatment to people who need intensive care.  He is the biggest key factor in the event.  In other words, to connect a person who is unable to breathe himself to a breathing apparatus and to provide the necessary care.  Turkey's here that the greatest chance of that.  With the number of intensive care beds, respirators, trained intensive care physicians and nurses, it seems that we will not be in trouble unless we encounter a very unusual situation.  Italy and Spain were also not going bad at first, the death rate was around 4 percent.  When their intensive care was over and they started not to receive patients who needed intensive care, it was what we saw on TVs after that.  There were people who received respiratory support while lying on the floor.  At that time, the death rates suddenly rose to 12 percent.  We need to separate the daily number of cases and the number of deaths per day.  The daily number of cases shows how successful you are in preventing the epidemic.  The number of deaths per day shows how well you treat those who get this disease.  Judging by the service we provide to patients, it seems that we are doing very well here.  We have no problems with the service we provide in hospitals, we are in good condition.  We are not that good at preventing the epidemic.  In other words, our daily dignity continues to increase with coefficient numbers.  That's why we have to take our daily precautions.

 Our measures are clear, I don't even ask anymore.  You said too much…

 Of course.  But there is a group of people that we cannot reach, that media or social media cannot reach.  This has nothing to do with education either.  To that group we say this is very important;  We cannot explain that it is very important for their lives, their families and their country.  Extra measures are taken for this.  For example, they made the calculations in the USA;  310 million of the 320 million population do not go out at home and out of fear, even though there is no curfew.  Of course, they also have a different psychology, since after 9/11, fear developed so much in disasters.  It is the same in Germany;  Although the ban is not declared, people do not go out.  We have trouble here.  If we could fix this, for example, if 95 percent of us stayed at home for a while, if we took a tight protection, we would peak ourselves in about 2 weeks and finish this job in three months.  But if it is 10 percent, not 5 percent, the job will be longer;  20 percent will get longer.  This is an obvious account because.

 There is also the subject of smoking, teacher.  You may be seeing too, isn't it clear that it makes recovery difficult?

 Of course.  Smoking is a risk factor in both flu and pneumonia.  But none of them had such an obvious risk factor.  This made it very clear that the cure rate was 14 times higher in non-smokers.  This rate is very close to the relationship between lung cancer and smoking.  There are 20, 14 here.

 On the other hand, people who have ever smoked have fallen into despair.  "What good is it if I quit after this hour?"  How can we break this misperception?

 Recently there have been experts who have been confused about this situation, using false statements.  "I am smoking, would it help if I quit today?"  they ask, and an expert says, "It doesn't disappear!"  says.  Does that happen!  Of course it will help.  The effects of smoking on the lungs do not go away in 1-2 days, it takes time, but of course there is a difference between the person who quit smoking and the person who continues to smoke.  Quitting smoking means lowering the risk.  When we smoke daily, cigarettes constrict the bronchi and have many negative effects during the smoke we take.  So if you leave it today, it will help tomorrow.

 The lungs show some improvement and relief from the moment of quitting smoking, within days, right?

 Some disorders improve in a very short time.  There are also processes that will improve in a longer time, but as I said, the positive effect of this will emerge the day after quitting smoking.  Nobody should be negatively affected by this.

 Sir, my last question is;  Our magazine will be published in May.  It is very difficult to predict, but we can ask our hope.  What do you think could be our situation at the beginning of May?

 This is completely in our hands.  As in the examples I have given, if we do not go outside unless necessary, we will have it under control within approximately two weeks at the latest, and with our daily number of cases, maximum 2-3 months.

 Sir, what would you like to say lastly?  What is your message?

 Once a person will know that;  If he does not go out, there is no chance of transmission of this virus.  This virus is not working, flying, not alive.  In other words, it does not enter through the window or through the door.  However, this virus can infect you with a human.  That's why the safest thing is to stay at home.  People who have to work will come out, then they will wear their masks, they will not stay closer than 1.5 meters to people.  If he pays attention to these rules, he is protected at a very high rate, even if it is not as safe as being at home.

Do not smoke !!!!  Smoking kills !!!!  Millions of people die annually from diseases caused by smoking !!!!  It also does not end with counting material and moral damages ....